US Troops’ withdrawal may plunge Afghanistan into chaos
The United States’ decision to pull out all its troops by September 11, despite different recommendations from its military and lawmakers in the Congress and Senate, could have a severe impact not only on Afghanistan’s security, but on the strength of President Ashraf Ghani’s government’s ability to negotiate with the Taliban. The Taliban are planning to take full advantage of the withdrawal of US troops. When the US sent its troops into Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001 attack on US soil by Al-Qaeda, most of the countries in the world supported this action; NATO and the western allies of the US participated as well.
Al-Qaeda, which had a safe harbor in the country, was almost ousted; the Taliban forces that used to once run the country, were then almost forced into non-existence. All of their senior leaders fled, mainly into Pakistan, which has maintained a good relationship with them. The Afghan population started enjoying freedom after the Taliban was overthrown by the US — the first time since the Taliban forced the Russians out of Afghanistan. The Taliban enforced a strict regime, characterized by savagery and barbarity in the name of Islam. After the US invasion, women started going to schools and colleges, burqas were slowly replaced by hijabs in Kabul, and institution-building started from scratch with the help of international agencies.
UN agencies, USAID, World Bank, and several other bilateral and multilateral institutions focused on helping the Afghan Government, put some systems in place to deliver government services to the people in Afghanistan. This strategy worked to an extent, and the impact from specific interventions in areas such as power supply, airport infrastructure, functional schools for girls, advocacy groups, etc., became quite apparent.
The country, now built with international support, received a setback from the decision of the US troops to withdraw their support; this was followed by the decision of the NATO troops to withdraw. The government’s service delivery wasn’t good and was associated with corruption; this is what enabled the Taliban to penetrate many provinces in the country. The Taliban now has substantial control of Afghanistan, including the fringes of Kabul city. The troop withdrawals have bolstered their confidence to ignore negotiations with the government that they had initially agreed to, with the US. With the imminent withdrawal, the Taliban can exert more pressure and take further control of the country, possibly even introduce quasi-Sharia laws. Whatever gains were made by introducing a democratic system may soon be lost; women groups have started voicing their concerns, expressing fear that their access to education, jobs, and freedom will be restricted severely.
President Biden has to decide if the US still needs to maintain military support, even after twenty years, or withdraw. Currently, the US has less than three thousand troops, who are primarily engaged in training Afghan forces, and providing security to the US embassy. However, the very presence of US troops fortifies the current government’s confidence, and that of a large section of the population. Many fear that after the withdrawal, the country may face civil unrest and face severe deterioration of the security situation.
Some embassies have already started reducing the scope and magnitude of their operations. We can expect some of the progress that has been made over the last few years to regress in the near future.
